Fun Facts & Red Flags – Unprecedented Events
The second round of the wildest NBA Playoffs in recent memory is almost over... here's a quick list of all the statistical drama.
Let me summarize the last month of the NBA with one of my favourite memes.
There’s been so many unprecedented events that have happened in the NBA in the last month, it’s been hard to keep track. Lucky for you, I kept a list (aka my Twitter/Bluesky).
MAVS WIN THE LOTTERY WITH 1.8% ODDS
Let’s start with something unrelated to the NBA playoffs: the Dallas Mavericks won the 2025 Draft Lottery & the right to draft Cooper Flag. Dallas had a 1.8% chance at winning the lottery, the lowest odds by a team since the Cavaliers had a 1.4% chance in 2014. Mavs had never won the lottery in the 40 years that the lottery system has been in place. Their 10-spot jump is the largest in the history of the lottery. All of this happened almost 100 days after they traded generational star Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. I’ll leave it at that.
COMEBACK KINGS
This note could have said six 20-point comeback wins but the Pacers were *only* down 19 in their series-clinching win against the Cavs on Tuesday night.
At this point in time, both the Pacers & Knicks deserve the Comeback King crown. Before this postseason, a team had only come back from down 7 in the last minute of a playoff game once in the play-by-play era. Indiana did it TWICE in an 8-day span. The Knicks made their case for the crown by coming back from down 20 in back-to-back games against the Celtics. New York is home to the Clutch Player of the Year but a team has never comeback from down 20 in the same playoff series prior to this season.
Another fun fact about the Knicks: They’ve been outscored by 10 points across the first four games of the Boston series yet hold a 3-1 lead.
That’s the greatest disparity for a team with a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series since the Lakers were -11 against Suns in the West semis in 1980.
DYNASTIES ARE OVER, PARITY IS PERMANENT
It’s 6 PM on May 14th. Right now, the 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics are down 3-1 to the Knicks & the 2023 NBA Champion Denver Nuggets are down 3-2 to the Thunder. If OKC & New York win their respective series, the NBA will have a different champion in 7 straight seasons for the first time in NBA postseason history.
The era of dynasties is over, especially with the current CBA. LeBron James went to 8 consecutive NBA Finals from 2011 to 2018, a record that will take a miracle to break. The Warriors’ five consecutive Finals berths was the last time a team had made the Finals in back-to-back seasons. It’ll require a comeback written by the basketball gods for the Celtics to become the first back-to-back champions since 2018.
The 61-win Boston Celtics are a loss away from the end of this version of their roster because they’re set to be second-apron team for the second consecutive year. The 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost all of 18 games this season, are second-round exits. They’re due to be a second-apron team next season even without accounting for Ty Jerome’s upcoming payday. Celtics & Cavs were the clear cut, Conference Finals favourites at the start of the playoffs & now, it’s unlikely either team will be able to run it back with the same core.
This postseason was the first time we’ve had TWO 60-win teams down 2-0 in a second-round series, let alone down 3-1. In fact, the Cavs are first 60-win team to lose a second-round series in 5 games since the Thunder did it in 2013. They’re one of just four 60-win teams to go out in this fashion since the league expanded to a 16-team playoff format in 1984.
Another sign of the parity in this league is the Pacers, who have made the Conference Finals for the second season in a row. Indiana became the FIRST team in NBA postseason history to make back-to-back Conference Finals as a 4-seed or lower.
ROAD WARRIORS
As of May 14th at 3 PM, road teams are 30-31 this postseason. That’s on pace to be the best combined road record in a single-postseason since 1981 (excluding the 2020 Disney Bubble Playoffs). Even wilder, road teams are 12-6 in the second round, the best combined road win percentage in the second-round since the NBA expanded to a 16-team playoff format in 1984 (again, excluding the bubble).
Home court advantage hasn’t been a factor for non-OKC/Denver teams in the second round & especially not for the 1 & 2 seeds in the East. Cleveland & Boston are a combined 0-5 at home in the second round. Cleveland finished the regular season with the second-best home record (34-7) in the NBA, behind only OKC. Fun fact: Including the playoffs, 5 of the Cavs’ 10 losses at home this season came against the Pacers.
This one felt a little heavy with the qualifiers, but I was looking for a way to contextualize the shooting variance we’re seeing in the second round. Home teams are shooting a combined 31.6% from three in the second round, the worst 3-point shooting percentage on home court of the Conference Semis since 1999.
Enjoy the closeout games tonight!